Bundesliga got back in action last week for the first time after corona virus outbreak. Teams are playing games for empty stadiums on Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Cause of the corona, both teams now have more player changes. Teams can change 5 players instead of normal 3. This post is about Saturday's game between Wolfsburg and Dortmund.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund - Season so far
Hosting team Wolfsburg is currently 6th in Bundesliga and holding the last place to qualify to Europa League next season. In 26 games Wolfsburg has 10 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses, which means they have 39 points. Wolfsburg is only 2 points clear from the 8th spot and cap to 5th placed Leverkusen is already 11 points.
Wolfsburg has scored 36 goals in their 26 games, while giving away 31, which is one of the biggest reasons they are falling behind in title/Champions League race. Dutch striker Waut Weghorst is leading Wolfsburg in goals as he has found the net 11 times this season.
Dortmund has been a Bundesliga giant for years and they are currently 2nd in the league, 4 points behind reigning champion Bayern Munich. Dortmund has 54 points that came from 16 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in 26 games. Dortmund has scored incredible 72 goals in 26 games, which is almost 3 goals per game! They have given away 33 goals this season. English winger Jadon Sancho leads Dortmund in goals with 14. Marco Reus has 11 goals and teen sensation Erling Braut Haaland has 10 goals in only 9 games at Dortmund.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund - Past 5 games
The 5 latest games have been good for both teams. Wolfsburg won their first game back after the break against Augsburg away. Before the break Wolfsburg won 1 game and had two draws. They also lost their Europa League game against Shakhtar Donetsk on their home ground 1-2. One of the draws came against Red Bull Leipzig, which is one of the toughest opponents to face in the league. On the other hand they had a draw with newly promoted Union Berlin as well. In these 5 games Wolfsburg scored 8 goals and gave away 5. In their past 5 Bundesliga games Wolfsburg has 3 wins and 2 draws with 11 goals scored and 5 given away. They beat Mainz and Hoffenheim who both are having absolutely horrendous eras in the season right now.
Dortmund is red hot at the moment. They have won 5 Bundesliga games in a row and also has lost one game in their past 5 games overall. The only loss came against PSG in Champions League, which got them eliminated from the next round. In their past 5 games Dortmund has 9 goals scored, while giving away 3. In Bundesliga they have 13 goals scored while giving away only 1 during their 5 game winning streak. Dortmund also won their first game back by beating Schalke 4-0 at home.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund - Who to follow?
Since there has been two months of break, it's hard to say who's in best form. Weghorst will be back in the lineup for Wolfsburg after being suspended for too many yellow cards. The leading goal scorer is always good to follow.
From Dortmund you obviously want to keep eye on Haaland. The 19-year-old Norwegian has 10 goals in 9 games since he joined Dortmund in January. Rafael Guerreiro scored twice against Schalke and he is likely to start game against Wolfsburg as well.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund - What to bet?
Dortmund showed they are ready for season to continue in their last game by winning Schalke 4-0. As the biggest threat to Bayern in the title race, Dortmund has to perform at their best in every game. Dortmund has some issues with injuries though. Emre Can, Nico Schulz, Marco Reus, Axel Witsel and Dan-Axel Zagadou are all out.
Wolfsburg will get their top scorer Weghorst back. The host is missing William, Ignacio Camacho, Yannick Gerhardt and Josuha Guilavogui from their squad.
Since there are 5 substitutions in the game instead of 3, teams get more fresh players on the field. This means that the team with deeper squad gets advantage. Dortmund definitely has deeper squad than Wolfsburg, even with the major injuries Dortmund is facing. In their last game against Schalke, Dortmund still had players like Sancho and Mario Götze on the bench.
Dortmund is the better side without a doubt. They have more depth and quality in their team and they also have the intense title race going with Bayern, where they cannot drop any points.
I think Dortmund will continue from where it left last week and they will win this game. Since the odds for high scoring game are low, I'm picking Dortmund to win by at least two goals. That will also cover 0-2 result if the game is low scoring. If Dortmund wins by one, you get your bet back.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund - The pick
DORTMUND -1 ASIAN HANDICAP
OlyBet 2.34
LeoVegas 2.28
